Comment piece originally published in The Times, Monday 13 May 2024

The Conservative government is claiming to have made progress on delivering cuts to immigration, based on falling applications for dependents accompanying international students and its policy of removals to Rwanda.  

Labour looks tempted to prioritise “toughness”, welcoming the former Tory MP Natalie Elphicke’s defection as endorsement of its competence on immigration. In contrast, John Swinney, Scotland’s first minister, has called for more immigration to stimulate economic growth.  

Research from Migration Policy Scotland indicates that Swinney’s view is better aligned with what the Scottish public want. Historically high-net migration figures could be interpreted as signalling time for greater restrictiveness. And this representative survey does find that Scottish views have cooled over the past 12 months.  

Yet the research also shows a clear if cautious pragmatism. There is support for recruitment from abroad (61 per cent), especially for sectors with critical shortages (70 per cent) or seasonal/temporary work (78 per cent). On social security and social housing, 38 per cent say working migrants should become eligible within two years and 62 per cent within five years.  

Our future holds great challenges. Our workforce and economy need to adapt to climate change and artificial intelligence. Scotland’s population is ageing and at risk of decline. Immigration will play a significant role in meeting these challenges and policymakers need to think through how that can best be done.  

The divisive politics at Westminster steal time from thinking seriously on these big issues. Contrary to claims that “toughness on migration” is uppermost in voters’ minds, this survey shows that a more thoughtful approach is needed. 

With higher education a key area of economic growth, predicted reductions in overseas students look like a misstep. Our data shows that in Scotland, as in the UK, restrictions are more likely to appeal to those who vote Conservative.  

We found support for post-study visas at 60 per cent and 55 per cent in support of welcoming programmes. Despite the headline figures favouring reductions, when we looked at key routes for skilled workers, care workers, seasonal workers, students and those on specified humanitarian visas preferences are for numbers to increase, or to remain the same.  

Now, more than ever, is the time to embrace with greater ambition the role immigration must play in our economy and society to build a future where we can all flourish.  

Sarah Kyambi is director of Migration Policy Scotland