Comment piece originally published in The Times, Thursday 14 September 2023
Research published today is a significant step forward in understanding attitudes to immigration in Scotland and the coming two days after the release of the latest UK data it also points to an increasing divergence in attitudes north and south of the border.
The Migration Policy Scotland Attitudes survey asked 1,162 adults across Scotland their views on immigration. This is the first representative survey of attitudes to immigration in the country for nearly a decade. The findings are startling: with the largest group (38 per cent) in favour of increasing migration and only 28 per cent calling for reduction. This reverses 2014 figures where 58 per cent wanted to see immigration to Scotland reduced. There is much to tease out within the new data to understand more fully what people think, let alone why they think it, and a need for longer-term tracking of Scottish public opinion on this.
The lack of representative insight into Scottish attitudes to immigration over the past decade may have hidden a growing gap in people’s views. UK data published earlier this week by Ipsos/British Future finds increasing numbers calling for a reduction in immigration numbers (48 per cent). Stark differences are apparent too on immigration’s impacts: 43 per cent viewing these positively, compared with 59 per cent in the Scottish survey, which was conducted by Diffley Partnership.
Policymaking that focuses overwhelmingly on soundbites risks leaving governments with nowhere firm to stand. The Ipsos/British Future survey finds 66 per cent dissatisfied with the government’s approach. Rishi Sunak looks to have painted himself into a corner with an approach to small boats.
Are the more positive views in Scotland the result of positive messaging in Scotland, including frequent cross-party consensus? More research is needed, but wide-ranging agreement with statements such as “migration brings people to areas which need them” (59 per cent) indicates that the Scottish public’s views have changed markedly.
Migration is a complex phenomenon that evokes contradictory impulses. UK policymaking on this issue remains mired in signalling and messaging rather than getting on with the difficult task of weighing up evidence and initiating the kinds of conversations capable of bringing us together rather than driving us further apart. A prerequisite for those conversations is having the evidence to inform the decision-making.
Sarah Kyambi is the director of Migration Policy Scotland